Profiling and the War on Terrorism

The terrorist attacks planned for August 16 were thwarted. This was due in large part to the gathering of intelligence by the U.S. and the British. Not surprisingly, the news of the plot has produced a great amount of fuss regarding the use of racial profiling. However, those who understand the dismal science of economics know this to be a futile attempt to prevent future attacks.

The debate regarding screening is too often clouded by the use of red herrings. Proponents of profiling rarely speak about the possible success of their proposed program. Instead they claim that political correctness is to blame for the failure of their proposal to become standard practice. While political correctness has long surpassed its usefulness, there is much more to this issue than how it will affect others’ feelings.

The reason racial profiling seems so appealing is because there exists an obvious correlation between two things: Arab male participants and terrorist attacks. Given the fact that all the terrorists who have plotted attacks on America happened to be Arab males, proponents of racial profiling claim it should be justified to screen individuals of that description. This argument is deeply flawed and ignores the basic tenets of human behavior.

The dismal science teaches us that individuals respond to incentives. For example, the government allows individuals to deduct mortgage interest from their taxes. This occurs because the government wants to encourage home ownership. Thus they provide an incentive for individuals to take out loans to purchase a house.

Profiling is no different. It provides terrorists with an incentive to change their behavior.

Screening every Arab male that attempts to board a plane will eliminate the aforementioned correlation, but not the endeavor. In other words, a policy of profiling on the basis of race, religion, and sex gives the terrorists a strong incentive to recruit and train individuals that do not fit the profiled description.

Those who argue that the terrorist organizations would not be able to do so have obviously forgotten John Walker Lindh, who certainly did not fit the profile of a Taliban member. Similarly, is there any reason to believe that females are incapable of carrying out attacks? Tell that to the Israelis.

What’s more, to openly condone racial, gender, or religious profiling is to essentially provide the enemy with your strategy and ensure your demise. This is a poor strategy in business and, more importantly, in war. One should never provide an opponent with any information that could provide an advantage.

Racial profiling may seem like a good idea to those who only see the world in patterns. However, to an economist, the idea seems ineffective and perhaps even detrimental to the war effort.