Tag Archives: David Beckworth

Is Deflation on the Horizon?

There has been a great deal of talk regarding deflation recently. Today, Nouriel Roubini predicted that deflation will be the main concern of policy makers in the next six months. James Hamilton disagrees. Nevertheless, the drastic fall in housing prices and the recent crash in the money multiplier warrant a closer look.

At the onset of the Great Depression, the Fed was already in contractionary mode. The subsequent banking failures of 1930 – 1933 caused a flight to cash as many removed their money from banks. This flight to cash resulted in a severe monetary contraction as money moved from banks to mattresses (or so the saying goes). This monetary contraction led to the worst deflation in U.S. history with percentage price declines in the double digits. Now we have talked about irrational fears of deflation before, however, when deflation is the result of an excess demand for money, the effects can be quite disastrous.

The recent discussion regarding deflation begs the question as to whether we are currently in the midst of a monetary contraction.

On the supply-side, we are clearly not in a contractionary environment. However, as our friend David Beckworth points out, the money multiplier of the monetary base has declined substantially since June. Beckworth (as well as Hamilton) attribute this decline to the fact that the Fed is now paying interest on excess reserves. While Beckworth’s accompanying graph provides ample evidence that bank reserves have drastically increased, a closer look at the data suggests that the spike in reserves began in August (two months after the decline began in the money multiplier).

I draw two conclusions from the previous analysis. First, we are entering (or have entered) a contractionary monetary environment. Keynes’s theory of the liquidity preference is proving as poignant as ever as individuals are fleeing the stock market and other investments for the security of cash. Second, foreclosures are squeezing bank balance sheets and counter-party risk remains elevated (as is continually evident from the LIBOR-OIS spread). Given that the Fed is introducing new facilities each day to ensure that it has to tools necessary to combat the crisis, this implies that cautious banks are simply building excess reserves (and the Fed is now rewarding them for doing so). The result is a massive reduction in the money multiplier.

Thus far, the Fed has been very responsive. The reduction in the money multiplier has been met by a significant increase in the monetary base. So long as the Fed remains proactive, I am prepared to agree with James Hamilton that deflation is not on the horizon.

Religiosity and the Business Cycle

Our friend David Beckworth is doing some interesting work on religiosity and the business cycle. Here is an excerpt:

The first thing economic theory says is that the cost of being religious can change over the business cycle. During an economic boom individuals may find increased opportunities for higher earnings. The potential for higher earnings, in turn, make time-intensive religious activities like church attendance costly for these individuals. Consider, for example, a Southern Baptist from a low-income family being offered the opportunity of getting overtime pay to work at a retail store on Sunday morning. For this Southern Baptist, going to church suddenly becomes a lot more costly and thus, increases the likelihood of him opting for work instead of church. On the other hand, during an economic downturn, time-intensive religious activities become less costly as opportunities for earnings decline. Here, the overtime opportunity for the Southern Baptist disappears and church attendance suddenly becomes more affordable. This idea that higher earnings lead individuals to substitute out of leisure activities, like going to church, into more work and vice versa is called the substitution effect. It implies there should be a countercyclical component to religiosity.

Here is a non-gated version of the paper.

On a side note, I recommend reading David’s blog for a unique and insightful perspective on macroeconomics.

Deflation…again

The latest EconTalk podcast is a discussion with Tyler Cowen that centers on monetary theory and policy. While the podcast as a whole is worth a listen, I found myself quite disappointed upon hearing Cowen’s views on deflation. Cowen not only rejects modest deflation as an optimal policy, but actually advocates a low, stable rate of inflation. 

In my view, this largely stems from a misunderstanding of deflation prevalent in monetary theory that I have previously detailed here.  Thankfully, David Beckworth, who has done great worth on the topic of malign versus benign inflation, presents a great counter-point to Cowen’s analysis.